ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – It is Wednesday, April 20, 2016, and no, it’s not Pot Legalization Day. It’s Trumpday! Let’s get started. Donald Trump won the New York State Republican Primary last night in a landslide, routing his primary opponents and garnering an impressive 61% of the vote tally. John Kasich came in second with 25% and Ted Cruz came in a distant third place finish with 14%. Donald Trump almost had a clean sweep of the delegate count in New York, winning 89 delegates. John Kasich picked up 3 and Ted Cruz got 0. What this means is that Donald Trump won every voting district, but didn’t win 3 districts by more than 50%. There are still a few more delegates yet to be allocated, with one district not having completed its vote tallies as of the time of this writing. So Trump will end up with 2-3 more delegates, for a final count of 91 delegates, minimum.
The raw popular vote totals for New York were 518,601 votes for Trump, 214,755 for Kasich, and 123,894 for Cruz. Donald Trump leads the GOP race nationally in the popular vote count as well, with 8,716,136 votes cast for Trump versus his closest rival, Ted Cruz, with 6,387,243, putting Donald Trump at a 2,328,893 lead in the popular vote.
By comparison, 1.7 million votes were cast in the New York Democrat Primary, meaning Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the Empire State by a 2 to 1 margin. Clinton beat Sanders 58% to 42%. If Trump is the nominee, he will only be able to put New York in play by having many Democrats cross over to vote for him (or perhaps, against Hillary).
Looking ahead: Trump needs roughly 390 more delegates to get over the finish line of 1237 and sew up the nomination. On April 26 5 more states will have primary votes: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland. The total delegates at stake in these 5 contests will be 172. Delaware is Winner-Take-All with 16 delegates. Maryland and Pennsylvania are Winner-Take-Most with 38 and 71 delegates, respectively. In Pennsylvania, the Real Clear Politics Average has Trump at 44.8%. In Maryland, Trump is leading at 41%. In Connecticut Trump is leading with 48%.
After April 26th, Trump should be very close to 1,000 delegates, Cruz will be mathematically foreclosed from getting to 1237, and it will start to become very obvious that between May and June 7th, Trump will be able to get the final 250 or so delegates to clinch the nomination. Pressure should start to build on Ted Cruz at that point to leave the race. At that point he will be nothing more than John Kasich 2.0, another narcissist who doesn’t know when to quit for the good of the party.
The narrative of the party parachuting in a candidate that was never in the primary got a big Bronx Cheer from the Republican rank and file. The blowback from voters against the Oligarchy has been tremendous. The voter’s ire is equally up against the spectacle of Ted Cruz’ voterless wins in states that cancelled their caucuses and froze out the voters from the nominating process. When that becomes Ted Cruz’ only path to victory, I believe his share of the vote will continue to dwindle. Republican voters want to unify and defeat Hillary Clinton in November. They do not want to see the party blown apart with shady machinations to manipulate the delegate count, or have their primary votes ignored.